Amgen, Inc. (AMGN)
Discount cash flow analysis
Sensitivity matrix
|
-1% |
Discount Rate % 0% |
1% |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1% | $61.83 | $60.85 | $59.91 | |
| Terminal Growth% | 0 | $62.18 | $61.19 | $60.24 |
| +1% | $62.53 | $61.53 | $60.57 |
How does a change in discount rate or terminal growth affect valuation?
This table shows the sensitivity of the valuation to two key variables - the discount rate and the terminal growth rate
Valuations and comments
- Valuecruncher created a new valuation of $16.21 (overvalued by 77.16%) - 1 hour ago
- GordonGekko created a new valuation of $61.19 (overvalued by 4.33%) - over 3 years ago
Comments
The boring details
| All amounts in millions | Figures |
| Enterprise Value: | 79,125 |
| Net Debt (Long-term borrowings less cash): | 4,026 |
| Equity Value: | 67,671 |
| Number of Shares Outstanding: | 1,058,000,000 |
| Calculated value per share: | $61.19 |
Enterprise Value is the present value of the post-tax cash flows for a business into the future.
Where:
- C1, C2, C3 - the cash flow in period 1, 2, 3, ...
- r - the discount rate
To capture the cash flows into the future a terminal value is calculated via a perpetuity calculation -
based on the final years forecast post-tax free cash flow.
Where:
- Cn - the cash flow in the final forecast period.
- LTG - the long-term growth rate
- r - the discount rate
- g - the terminal growth rate
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to determine the equity component in the discount rate.
Where:
- rt - the risk free rate
- t - the tax rate
- B - the beta of the company
- MRP - the Market Risk Premium
Valuecruncher uses an estimate of Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) to determine the discount rate in the calculation.